Dependence of model-based extreme flood estimation on the calibration period: case study of the Kamp River (Austria)     

P. Brigode  E. Paquet  P. Bernardara  J. Gailhard  F. Garavaglia  P. Ribstein 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1424-1437

Abstract

The Kamp River is a particularly interesting case study for testing flood frequency estimation methods, since it experienced a major flood in August 2002. Here, the Kamp catchment is studied in order to quantify the influence of such a remarkable flood event on the calibration of a rainfall–runoff model, in particular when it is used in a stochastic simulation method for flood estimation, by performing numerous rainfall–runoff model calibrations (based on split-sample and bootstrap tests). The results confirmed the usefulness of the multi-period and bootstrap testing schemes for identifying the dependence of model performance and flood estimates on the information contained in the calibration period. The August 2002 event appears to play a dominating role for the Kamp River, since the presence or absence of the event within the calibration sub-periods strongly influences the rainfall–runoff model calibration and the extreme flood estimations that are based on the calibrated model.  相似文献   

A sediment fluxes investigation for the 2-D modelling of large river morphodynamics     

《Advances in water resources》2015

A complete understanding of alluvial-bed dynamics is desirable for evaluating a variety of issues related to water resources.Sediment fluxes were investigated in a bifurcation of the large Parana River near Rosario, Argentina. The backscatter estimations from the Doppler profilers provided the suspended load of the sediment forming the riverbed. An echo-sounder was applied to track the dunes yielding the bed-load estimation.Aiming to show the usefulness of the recorded data, a 2-D numerical code was applied to the 10-km long and 2-km wide Rosario reach. The morphodynamic module was un-coupled from the hydrodynamics assessment, which enabled the long-term prediction of the river morphology accounting for the hydrological yearly variation with a quasi-steady approach.Numerical experiments were performed to test the sensitivity of the hydrodynamic model to the computational time-step and mesh size, to test the un-coupling scheme performance regarding the full-dynamic modelling, to test the accuracy of the sediment transport formulae based on the field evidence and, finally, to provide guidance to properly fix the model parameters.  相似文献   

Impact of model development,calibration and validation decisions on hydrological simulations in West Lake Erie Basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Prasad Daggupati  Haw Yen  Michael J. White  Raghavan Srinivasan  Jeffrey G. Arnold  Conor S. Keitzer  Scott P. Sowa 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5307-5320

Watershed simulation models are used extensively to investigate hydrologic processes, landuse and climate change impacts, pollutant load assessments and best management practices (BMPs). Developing, calibrating and validating these models require a number of critical decisions that will influence the ability of the model to represent real world conditions. Understanding how these decisions influence model performance is crucial, especially when making science‐based policy decisions. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in West Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) to examine the influence of several of these decisions on hydrological processes and streamflow simulations. Specifically, this study addressed the following objectives (1) demonstrate the importance of considering intra‐watershed processes during model development, (2) compare and evaluated spatial calibration versus calibration at outlet and (3) evaluate parameter transfers across temporal and spatial scales. A coarser resolution (HUC‐12) model and a finer resolution model (NHDPlus model) were used to support the objectives. Results showed that knowledge of watershed characteristics and intra‐watershed processes are critical to produced accurate and realistic hydrologic simulations. The spatial calibration strategy produced better results compared to outlet calibration strategy and provided more confidence. Transferring parameter values across spatial scales (i.e. from coarser resolution model to finer resolution model) needs additional fine tuning to produce realistic results. Transferring parameters across temporal scales (i.e. from monthly to yearly and daily time‐steps) performed well with a similar spatial resolution model. Furthermore, this study shows that relying solely on quantitative statistics without considering additional information can produce good but unrealistic simulations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

GGR Biennial Critical Review: Analytical Developments Since 2014          下载免费PDF全文

Kathryn L. Linge  L. Paul Bédard  Roxana Bugoi  Jacinta Enzweiler  Klaus Peter Jochum  Rüdiger Kilian  Jingao Liu  Johanna Marin‐Carbonne  Silke Merchel  Frans Munnik  Luiz F.G. Morales  Claire Rollion‐Bard  A. Kate Souders  Paul J. Sylvester  Ulrike Weis 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2017,41(4):493-562

This GGR biennial critical review covers developments and innovations in key analytical methods published since January 2014, relevant to the chemical, isotopic and crystallographic characterisation of geological and environmental materials. In nine selected analytical fields, publications considered to be of wide significance are summarised, background information is provided and their importance evaluated. In addition to instrumental technologies, this review also presents a summary of new developments in the preparation and characterisation of rock, microanalytical and isotopic reference materials, including a précis of recent changes and revisions to ISO guidelines for reference material characterisation and reporting. Selected reports are provided of isotope ratio determinations by both solution nebulisation MC‐ICP‐MS and laser ablation‐ICP‐MS, as well as of radioactive isotope geochronology by LA‐ICP‐MS. Most of the analytical techniques elaborated continue to provide new applications for geochemical analysis; however, it is noted that instrumental neutron activation analysis has become less popular in recent years, mostly due to the reduced availability of nuclear reactors to act as a neutron source. Many of the newer applications reported here provide analysis at increasingly finer resolution. Examples include atom probe tomography, a very sensitive method providing atomic scale information, nanoscale SIMS, for isotopic imaging of geological and biological samples, and micro‐XRF, which has a spatial resolution many orders of magnitude smaller than conventional XRF.  相似文献   

现场抽滤法在悬浮物浊度分析中的应用探讨          下载免费PDF全文

林振镇  贾良文  杨日魁  陈蕴真 《水文》2017,37(2):48-53

以悬浮物浊度标定为研究对象,通过对不同分析方法得到的浓度结果与浊度仪之间相关性的分析,探索悬浮物浓度测量的较佳方案。根据实测数据的对比分析,发现现场抽滤法相较于自然焚烧法、室内抽滤法和沉淀烘干法,具有省时间、低费用、高效率和可靠性高的特点。主要原因为室内各类分析方法相较于现场抽滤会出现较多不确定的影响因素,包括运输存储过程中容器瓶壁的吸附作用、水样微生物的滋长以及方法本身的系统误差,如焚烧法操作过程,有机物在高温环境下挥发,致使分析处理的研究对象与观测仪器所测不同,导致产生比较大的误差。现场抽滤法不但适合在水流比较平稳的内河使用,而且在流态复杂,泥沙浓度变化较大的河口地区的泥沙浓度测量中也具有的较强实用性。  相似文献   

无人机航空伽马能谱数据处理中大气氡的修正     

王景丹  高国林  杨金政  蔡文军  安政伟  倪卫冲 《铀矿地质》2017,(1):37-44

介绍了无人机航空伽马能谱数据处理中大气氡修正的一种方法——能谱比法的原理与方法、数据处理过程及其在无人机航空伽马能谱数据处理中的应用。使用该方法对喀什地区的无人机航空伽马能谱进行修正,修正后的航放U较好地反映了该区的地质情况,可以应用到生产实践中去。  相似文献   

Multibeam Echo Sounders-IMU Automatic Boresight Calibration on Natural Surfaces   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nicolas Seube  Rabine Keyetieu 《Marine Geodesy》2017,40(2-3):172-186

ABSTRACT

This paper details a new boresight calibration method for multibeam echo sounder systems This method is based on an automatic data selection algorithm, followed by a boresight least squares adjustment This method, called MIBAC (MultiBeam-IMU Boresight Automatic Calibration), takes in input overlapping survey strips following a simple line pattern over a regular slope. We first construct a boresight error observability criterion, used to select automatically the most sensitive soundings to boresight errors. From these soundings, we perform a 3D adjustment of the boresight angle, thus taking into account the coupling between angles. From a statistical analysis of the adjustment results, we derive the boresight angle precision. Numerical results obtained with four different multibeam echo sounder systems are presented and compared to those of a patch test calibration method. Finally, we demonstrate the performances of MIBAC through a standard deviation along the surface normal approach computed by principal component analysis.  相似文献   

基于GNSS浮标和验潮资料的HY-2A卫星高度计绝对定标   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨磊  周兴华  王朝阳  梁冠辉  唐秋华  周东旭  雷宁  杨龙  穆博 《海洋学报》2017,39(1):111-120

为探测我国HY-2A卫星高度计海面高测量绝对偏差及其在轨运行状态,本文利用GNSS浮标星下点同步测量和验潮资料海面高传递方法在山东千里岩和珠海担杆岛海域开展定标研究。为验证GNSS浮标定标方法的准确性,还对国外卫星Jason-2和Saral进行了定标实验。实验表明GNSS浮标绝对海面高测量精度达2 cm,对Jason-2和Saral高度计多个周期定标得到的海面高偏差均值分别为5.7 cm和-2.3 cm,与国际专门定标场的结果符合较好。2014年9月和2015年5月HY-2A卫星高度计浮标定标结果分别是-65 cm和-91 cm,因两次结果差异显著,故又利用千里岩验潮站资料对HY-2A卫星高度计第56至73周期进行了定标分析,结果证明HY-2A卫星海面高存在约-51 cm/a的漂移,置信度为95%的回归分析表明浮标和验潮定标结果符合。本文研究结果表明在我国尚无专门定标场的情况下,可利用GNSS浮标对我国高度计实施灵活、精准的在轨绝对定标,在有高度计轨迹经过验潮站的情况下可使用验潮资料结合精密大地水准面模型进行绝对定标。  相似文献   

树轮长年表在全球变化相关领域中的应用研究进展-以14C曲线校正、环境考古和地质灾害事件定年为例     

杨桃 《中国沙漠》2017,37(2):247-253

近几十年树轮年代学得到了迅速发展,现已成功建立了大量长度逾千年的树轮长年表。本文评述树轮长年表在全球变化相关研究领域中的应用。树轮长年表可为¹⁴C定年提供校准曲线,从而将样本的¹⁴C年龄转化为日历年龄,提高了¹⁴C测年的精度;也可为环境考古如古木建筑及墓葬等提供定年服务,确定古木构建筑的建造年代;树轮长年表在地质灾害事件定年方面也发挥了重要作用。然而,树轮长年表在上述研究领域的应用也存在不足,最新的国际¹⁴C会议公布的¹⁴C校正曲线中能够准确定年的树轮校正部分仅为过去12 410年,目前尚无法提供更长时间尺度的树轮校正曲线。在对木构建筑进行定年时受到古木样本量不足的限制等。因此,为了更好地发挥树轮长年表的应用潜力,应不断发掘与延长现有树轮宽度长年表,同时建立长年表的C、O同位素序列,以期为长年表的应用不断做出贡献。  相似文献   

模架无线实时变形监测系统的设计与精度标定     

郑阔  李长青  崔有祯  武胜林 《测绘通报》2017,(6):137-141

介绍了模架无线实时变形监测系统的基本构成和主要工作过程,提出了使用绝对激光跟踪仪对其核心部件位移和角度传感器进行监测精度标定,设计了模架无线实时监测传感器工作和标定试验模型,通过试验分析为传感器精度的判定和升级研发提供了有效的数据支撑。  相似文献